After President Barack Obama revealed the suspect status of his support for Israel — and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wowed crowds with a sternly-worded address to a special joint session of Congress — some speculated Jewish American support for Obama would wane. But a new Gallup poll out yesterday shows a large majority still approve of the president.

Jewish Americans gave President Barack Obama a 60% job approval rating in June, down from 68% in May, but statistically unchanged from 64% in April. Thirty-two percent of U.S. Jews now disapprove of the job Obama is doing, similar to their 30% average thus far in 2011. …

President Obama delivered a major speech at the State Department on May 19 in which he articulated his support for a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a return to Israel’s 1967 borders. His remarks provoked a highly negative reaction from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as from many high profile supporters of Israel in government, politics, and media.

Gallup cannot say whether the speech had an immediate impact on the views of Jewish Americans toward the president nationally, as sample sizes for this group in Gallup Daily tracking are too small to isolate short time periods.

However, aggregated Gallup Daily tracking interviews for the month and half periods prior to and following the speech show no significant nor sustained shift in Jewish Americans’ views toward Obama. Sixty-five percent approved of him for the April 1-May 18 time period, and 62% approved from May 19-June 30. Across the two time periods, approval was also essentially flat among all U.S. adults.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Jews who attend synagogue weekly — who tend to be more conservative, in general — are less supportive of Obama than those who don’t.

In general, the poll confirms what Ed said earlier:

The Jewish vote won’t suddenly swing to the GOP, for reasons that have nothing to do with Obama. Jewish voters tend to be more progressive; the Democratic Party is a more natural home for them. While there may be some truth in the notion that African-Americans are naturally more conservative and could be won over with a more concerted effort by Republicans to address their issues through debate (as Jack Kemp tried), that’s almost certainly not true of Jewish voters as a bloc. The GOP position on Israel might be a better fit, but on domestic politics, they’ll keep voting Democratic.

But the official affirmation of Jewish support the poll provides is still good news for Obama, who needs every bit of approval he can muster heading into a difficult reelection. Of course, he especially needs any approval that will translate to campaign cash — and whether this poll actually contradicts what some have said, that the crucial category of politically active Jews are less enthused about Obama than ever before, remains to be seen. After all, the poll didn’t specifically seek out Jewish Americans noted for political involvement. It could be the (randomized) sample that so strongly supports Obama just happens to barely vote, let alone donate.

1:32 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Casey Anthony acquitted for some reason

Obama’s doing a quickie presser at 4:40 p.m. to talk about the debt ceiling and the evils of corporate jets, etc, but apart from that, it’ll be wall-to-wall Caseymania on cable news for the rest of the day. There’s no avoiding it so we might as well catch the news wave and surf. How many of you followed the trial? I only watched bits and pieces, but if you need to get up to speed, the Wikipedia article of the case is a solid summary based on what I’ve read elsewhere. Money quote: “There is something wrong. I found my daughter’s car today and it smells like there’s been a dead body in the damn car.” And yet, the party raged on.

Here’s what her lawyer did to her father on the witness stand. Unbelievable.

1:29 PM | 0 comments | Read More

The Ed Morrissey Show: Andrew Malcolm & the Casey Anthony verdict

We’ll also cover the the case of Marizela Perez, who has been missing in the Seattle area for more three months. Marizela’s case has a connection here at Hot Air, as she is the cousin of the Boss Emeritus, Michelle Malkin. Michelle is trying to spread the word through Facebook and Q13Fox/KCPQ in Seattle. We want to encourage prayers for Marizela’s family, and also try to reach anyone in the area who knows where Marizela might be and ask them to contact the police.

The search has its own website now, Find Marizela, for the latest in the efforts to bring Marizela home. There is also a fund for the family to keep the search efforts going. Be sure to check there and at Michelle’s site for further developments, and keep the family in your prayers.

America’s Most Wanted is now on the case, too.

Michelle has a new update today:

Today on The Ed Morrissey Show (3 pm ET), we return with our Tuesdays with Andrew Malcolm, the Prince of Twitter, on the intersection of media and politics. We’ll talk about the Minnesota shutdown, the Casey Anthony trial and verdict due at 2:15 ET, and much, much more. We will also take your questions in our Lightning Round in the final 20 minutes of the show — so make sure you’re registered at Ustream to be one of our Chatizens!

The Ed Morrissey Show and its dynamic chatroom can be seen on the permanent TEMS page — be sure to join us, and don’t forget to keep up with the debate on my Facebook page, too!

Video streaming by Ustream

Four months ago today, my cousin Marizela Perez disappeared from the University District in Seattle, Washington. I am devastated to tell you once again that there are no new leads or breaks in the case. Her parents have exhausted their work leave and have had to return to the East Coast. The family is weighing various legal and investigative avenues to pursue. As I reported in May, the quest to obtain Marizela’s online/text info has been an uphill battle. After months of pressing, we finally received a search warrant two weeks ago related to the case. It had been signed by a judge on April 22; we gained access to it in late June. …

Marizela’s Google web history was not included. The Seattle Police Department will not disclose the actual Google records to her parents so that they could pursue the search for Marizela on their own.

Keep the family in prayer.

1:25 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Canadian Dollar Loses Ground in Forex Trading

Loonie lower in currency trading

The U.S. dollar is gaining against many major currencies after falling short earlier. The Canadian dollar is losing some ground in forex trading after seeing success against the greenback.

Loonie has been doing well in currency trading, advancing quite rapidly. However, some forex traders believe that the Canadian dollar was overbought. As a result, the loonie is going through a correction.

Also helping the U.S. dollar in forex trading right now is the fact that there is some risk aversion on the latest news about the possibility of a Greek default. As a result, not even slightly higher oil prices have been able to help the Canadian dollar in forex trading.

2:25 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Happy Independence Day

How will you celebrate our nation’s independence? We have a rather traditional day laid out for ourselves. We’ll start the day out with our city parade and a brunch with our extended Minnesota family. Later, I’ll do some grilling, and late in the evening, we will join friends to watch fireworks in St. Paul. In between, the First Mate and I will continue watching the miniseries John Adams, starring Paul Giamatti and Laura Linney as John and Abigail Adams. The story stretches from the Boston Massacre to Adams’ death on July 4, 1826, and presents a brilliant warts-and-all look at the man known as the Colossus of Independence in his day. The series includes this dramatization of the approval and publication of the Declaration of Independence, a stirring recitation:

My wife and I have spent the last few summers watching documentaries and dramatic recountings of the American Revolution period. Last year, we discovered The Founding of America, a collection of History Channel presentations that are worth so much more than the modest sale price of the set. I reviewed it last year, and the price has dropped considerably since then, which makes it a steal. But if you can’t get your hands on either for today, the History International channel will play the miniseries The Revolution all day, which is one of the programs included in the set, and a fine way to get into the spirit.

However you celebrate our independence, have a happy and safe day with family and friends, and take a moment to remember the men who risked all for our freedom and liberty.

11:11 AM | 0 comments | Read More

Three ways to bolster liberty on Independence Day

Earlier today, I prescribed a blend of civic and personal for celebrating Independence Day. Glenn Reynolds, better known as Instapundit, offered a more active plan for both celebrating and promoting liberty today and in the future in his Washington Examiner column yesterday. Besides e-mailing New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg a photo of yourself eating a hotdog (brats here in the Upper Midwest, natch), Glenn writes that Americans can declare their independence from those who want to keep us dependent on an out-of-touch federal nanny-state government in three ways:

* Attack the funding. Many of the most anti-liberty activities of state and local governments are driven by federal funding — either direct funding, or grants. …

* Stop supporting the enemies of freedom and start supporting your friends. Cancel your subscriptions to cable TV channels, magazines or newspapers that support big government over individual liberty.

* Join Together. It may seem contradictory to assert your independence by banding together. But our Founding Fathers didn’t set America free by acting alone.

The first two points are rather clear, although Glenn offers good advice in how to carry out both. He provides some interesting food for thought with the third. The nature of American liberty and independence is not isolation, but in voluntary associations, as Glenn references Alexander de Tocqueville’s observation:

In fact, voluntary association, as de Toqueville observed, is part of the particular genius of the American republic. So get involved.

You might join a political party — many small-government activists are trying to take over the Republican (and some even the Democratic) Party at the grassroots level and work from the bottom up, from the precinct to the state level.

It’s surprisingly easy to get involved in politics locally, and you can acquire responsibility and influence quite rapidly if you’re good with people and willing to put in the work.

Alternatively, you might join a Tea Party group. Those are still springing up all over, and are already having a dramatic influence on both national and local politics.

Every group is different, as the Tea Party is a movement, not a party, and has no main office. Find one that suits you, or start one if you can’t.

If there’s one issue you care about a lot, get involved there. Gun rights activism crosses party lines, but has had a major influence in expanding liberty — over the past decade, the growth of Second Amendment rights has been one of the major Bill of Rights success stories. There are lots of other causes, ranging from fathers’ rights to tax fairness. Pick one.

And if you’re not a joiner at all, well, you can always start a blog. For some people, that works out pretty well!

It worked out well for us, quite obviously, and that didn’t come from simply writing a blog from a log cabin in the wilderness. Success for people like Glenn and others came from networking with people of similar interests and passions, linking together (literally and figuratively) to advance arguments and inspire action, and work to build momentum for policies that advance liberty and freedom. It’s a modern version of the pamphleteering that advanced the American experiment, both before and after the Revolution.

It is an amazing privilege to live in a country where such power still remains in the hands of its citizens, a good point to remember on this day of all days.

Update: Apropos of celebrating independent, Mitch Berg, Kevin Ecker, and I will be staging a MOB On The Range Day to celebrate our Second Amendment freedoms (MOB stands for Minnesota Organization of Bloggers). The event will be a benefit (more later on that), and will be held in the near future. If you’re in Minnesota near the Twin Cities — or can make it here — stay tuned for more details.

11:07 AM | 0 comments | Read More

Hot Air Candidate Survey: 4th of July Weekend Results

With over 6000 ballots cast, we have results. Monthly Presidential chart is below. Then I’ll go into some of the hard realities facing Hot Air’s front runner. Send your questions and comments to me here.

Sarah Palin has returned to almost her highest vote take since the survey began, at 36.94% of the vote. Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry run closely together, coming in second (19.95%) and third (18.91%) respectively. Herman Cain takes fourth at 6.68%, continuing his downward movement since his May highs. Mitt Romney takes fifth, at 6.3%.

Palin may still be on top of the overall results, but she is in major danger of being eclipsed in the primaries by Bachmann and/or Perry. The following pie chart should make Palin supporters very, very uneasy.

(Palin beats Perry by 10 points, with unaffiliated voters breaking roughly 3-to-2 to Perry. The situation I lay out below is the more serious situation of the two for Palin.)

Hot Air is a site that, as these surveys consistently show, has a very strong and organized Palin following — and Hot Air tilts toward the Grassroots Right anyway — yet from her baseline vote to her head-to-head vote against Bachmann, Palin ekes out only a four point win, gaining 16 points from her baseline vs. Bachmann’s 28 point gain. If Bachmann takes that sort of ratio of unaffiliated voters in a head-to-head primary, I don’t see how Palin overcomes Bachmann, let alone overcomes whoever makes it out of the establishment primary of Romney, Pawlenty et al. If Palin’s overall Hot Air numbers again drop back to 32% or so, she will likely lose to Bachmann in the Hot Air head-to-head match-up.

There’s a protective instinct in play here, too, and it appears that even grassroot-ers see Bachmann as a safer option to Palin. The 2nd choice Perry vote hammers this home pretty clearly.

But Bachmann’s pathway to the nomination is not a cakewalk and is complicated by Perry’s candidacy: Perry is not only the second choice for Palin, but for Bachmann as well.

Which pretty well explains this outcome:

Whoever emerges between Perry and Bachmann will have the electoral advantage on Palin, who it appears has serious electoral maneuvering problems even among the base. Palin’s strength is the excitement of her supporters and the high commitment of those supporters to her. Her weakness is, simply, that there won’t be enough of them to carry her through the current field of primary candidates. I wrote back in 2009 that Palin’s most likely role in the 2012 cycle would be as a coronator. I still believe that’s basically right.

Two other tidbits: The new Hot Air leader for the vice presidential nomination is Michele Bachmann, unseating Allen West from his long-running spot atop the VP results.

The new Hot Air second choice for president leader is, also, Michele Bachmann.

Lots here. Feedback welcome.

11:04 AM | 0 comments | Read More